I am sitting here at 1:30 on a lazy Wednesday, watching some Spring Training baseball, when who should be pitching for the New York Metropolitans but Oliver "Really? You want me to pitch Game 7? Really?!" Perez.
Now, there will be a host of Mets fans who happen to be fantasy managers who will somehow talk themselves into drafting him by pointing to his gritty, bulldog-like, UNLIKELY AND HIGHLY IMPROBABLE (emphasis added) start in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. Granted, this is his first start against live competition since last fall, but my observations have more to them than simple "rust."
Quite simply, Perez's mechanics are atrocious in every sense of the word. While I do not hold myself out as some expert scout of pitchers (being falsely modest, of course I'm an expert, I have a blog), I have done some pitching in my day and studied mechanics.
The problem that jumps out at me is that of his landing foot. From what I've seen when he was on Pittsburgh, he's always thrown crosswise, over his body, but somehow (at least when he was effective) he was able to get his weight and arm in the proper position (on top of the ball, throwing down) at the release of the ball. THAT is the magic he is missing nowadays. His body simply swings around his plant foot, dropping his arm, flattening EVERYTHING, including his once-hellacious slider.
For imagery, imagine this. You have a gate or door with an old school latch on it. Imagine the latch is the pitcher's arm. When you open the door, the latch (if it is in the upright position) will swing down. If you open the door quickly enough and with enough force, the latch will hang at a 90 degree angle to the door before pivoting downwards and hanging there.
This is what's happening to Perez's arm. He is unable to completely clear his hips, so instead of a diagonal right turn pulling his right arm and right hip down, he is just swinging around the doorpost that is his plant foot, which prevents his arm from throwing the ball DOWN into the hitter, instead slinging it on a level plane. Rick Peterson can kiss my ass.
-RJ
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Monday, February 26, 2007
Supersized-zaka Mania!
Quick hit for today, just to get Lefty's blood up. Reports out of Red Sox camp have coaches and certain managerial personnel (Read: Epstein, Theo) juuuuuust a little upset that Dice-K (or Deuce-five if we are counting pounds) showed up looking alot more like Rough Justice than he did the taut Yankee-killer they were all hoping for.
Legend has it that players, upon receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in guaranteed contract and endorsement money, tend to, uhm, let themselves go. Check this shit out:
Maybe pinstripes are slimming (ask David Wells) but here he is now:
That's alot of tempura, folks. Enjoy the derailment of the Red Sox AL Express.-RJ
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Papelboner 101
Alrite Ive sat and stewed about this long enough. It seems my silent protest and general malaise regarding these winter months has proved futile in hopes of quelling my fury regarding the red sox. Im sitting here trying to come up with rational thoughts or even words that arent complete gibberish regarding the red sox but I can't do it so instead of talking about the Red Sox, Im going to... talk about the red sox?Huh? Bear with me.
Keith Foulke's retirement. God bless you Keith you gave up your career for a Red Sox World Series win. (Yes RJ it DID happen.) Pitching absurd amounts of lights out innings for that peice of Red Sox lore will forever make you great in the Nation's eyes. Coincidentally, the sox now face a dilemma at the closer position. Theo and the brass (not his band, the sox management) have decided Papelbon's career is more important than winning a World Series. How? Well lets face it, Joel Piniero aint a top notch closer in Little League, much less the Major Leagues, however in order to maintain the length of papelbon's career it's been decreed he become a starter instead of a God of a closer and the next Mo Rivera. Note: This worked for the Braves and John Smoltz, and Im not a doctor so Ill just assume pitching every fifth day is healthier than closing.
Now the question I pose is this: Would Papelbon give his career to win a world series? I say a resounding yes. He's said he'd embrace the role of closer if Tito wants him there next year, and I believe him. I believe in my heart of hearts (probably a bit naive) that most professional athletes would sacrifice their careers for a world championship victory. See: Brett Favre's deal with El Diablo that has run out. Am I saying Papelbon would rather close than start? Heck no. He knows he's better off starting and with him in the rotation the sox have arguably the best staff in baseball (this assumes Dice-K isnt Hideki Irabu part deux) and have to be considered among the favorites to win a World Series.
Keith Foulke's retirement. God bless you Keith you gave up your career for a Red Sox World Series win. (Yes RJ it DID happen.) Pitching absurd amounts of lights out innings for that peice of Red Sox lore will forever make you great in the Nation's eyes. Coincidentally, the sox now face a dilemma at the closer position. Theo and the brass (not his band, the sox management) have decided Papelbon's career is more important than winning a World Series. How? Well lets face it, Joel Piniero aint a top notch closer in Little League, much less the Major Leagues, however in order to maintain the length of papelbon's career it's been decreed he become a starter instead of a God of a closer and the next Mo Rivera. Note: This worked for the Braves and John Smoltz, and Im not a doctor so Ill just assume pitching every fifth day is healthier than closing.
Now the question I pose is this: Would Papelbon give his career to win a world series? I say a resounding yes. He's said he'd embrace the role of closer if Tito wants him there next year, and I believe him. I believe in my heart of hearts (probably a bit naive) that most professional athletes would sacrifice their careers for a world championship victory. See: Brett Favre's deal with El Diablo that has run out. Am I saying Papelbon would rather close than start? Heck no. He knows he's better off starting and with him in the rotation the sox have arguably the best staff in baseball (this assumes Dice-K isnt Hideki Irabu part deux) and have to be considered among the favorites to win a World Series.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Giving Lefty his Papelboner
Interesting bit of historical revisionism going on from Red Sox camp. It seems that Tim Kurkistan (ijihad? Whatever.) is reporting on the ESPN.com site for spring training that:
Woe unto those who falsify or downplay injury reports. My ass gets tired from sitting here all day, but it doesn't "slip slightly forward."
Yours in the hopes the rotation falls apart around his shoulders,
-RJ
Now, as I remember it, Papelbon's shoulder was not simply TIRED, but IN MORE PIECES THAN A SHOULDER SHOULD BE IN. Here's the injury report from Rototimes.com:It was a sound decision to move Jonathan Papelbon to the rotation to prevent him from getting another tired shoulder, which ended his season a month early last year.
September 6, 2006: Sox medical director Thomas Gill said the ball of the shoulder joint had slipped slightly forward, but not completely out of the joint to the point where it would be considered a dislocation.
Woe unto those who falsify or downplay injury reports. My ass gets tired from sitting here all day, but it doesn't "slip slightly forward."
Yours in the hopes the rotation falls apart around his shoulders,
-RJ
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
Moron Alert...
...and it's not me for being lax in my blog duties.
I would imagine that working in San Francisco is good for many things. Chief among them, of course, is the FAAAAAABULOUS interior design. I would also imagine that covering the Giants all season long would lead you to become inundated with cliches and other tomfoolery, what with Barry Booster Shot and the rest of the antique Village People.
John Shea, however, in his report on the best lineups in the league on today's ESPN.com MLB section, has reached new heights of stupidity simply quoting dogma without common sense.
My prediction? Soriano hits .280 30+HR 90RBI and an OBP right around his career mark of .325. Even with his newfound patience, Cubs fans will quickly sour of how many one-out, men-on-second-and-third rallies are killed by his complete and utter disregard for the strike zone.
-RJ
I would imagine that working in San Francisco is good for many things. Chief among them, of course, is the FAAAAAABULOUS interior design. I would also imagine that covering the Giants all season long would lead you to become inundated with cliches and other tomfoolery, what with Barry Booster Shot and the rest of the antique Village People.
John Shea, however, in his report on the best lineups in the league on today's ESPN.com MLB section, has reached new heights of stupidity simply quoting dogma without common sense.
1. Cubs: The Cubs were last in the National League in on-base percentage (.319) and needed an overhaul after Dusty Baker's club lost 96 games. They had an active offseason (committing to $300 million in contracts), including replacing Baker with Lou Piniella. The biggest spending was for Alfonso Soriano, who will cost 136 million over seven years and should help improve their on-base percentage. He'll be joining Aramis Ramirez, who was re-signed for $75 million, and Derrek Lee, who's eyeing a season of good health. (Emphasis added)Now, I'm not asking for a quote of Soriano's OBP (.351) or any kind of analysis considering how an OBP of under .400, coming from a player who, at age 31, suddenly doubled his walk rate from previous years (overall .325 OBP for his career) will help improve the entire Cubs organization's take concerning on-base percentage. Fuck you, John Shea.
My prediction? Soriano hits .280 30+HR 90RBI and an OBP right around his career mark of .325. Even with his newfound patience, Cubs fans will quickly sour of how many one-out, men-on-second-and-third rallies are killed by his complete and utter disregard for the strike zone.
-RJ
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
It's Like a Taste Explosion
I could come here with a long post about being abducted by amazonian nataives, or how I was held against my will in a chinese prison, or even about how I saved a puppy from a burning building, but, alas, that would just be lying. The boring truth of my absence is that my computer at work blew, so I had to get a new one. Good news: Im back and better than ever. Look for some upcoming posts that are fantasy baseball related, as well as my eagerly awaited Red Sox preview. The latter post will come once Ive gathered enough coherent thoughts about these morons to come up with something decent to say about them, rather than just a long string of obsceneties.
Anyway, Im back and ready to roll.
- Ray King The lefty specialist
PS: Tell me the fruit George was eating and the basic plot of that Seinfeld episode and win a dollar.
Anyway, Im back and ready to roll.
- Ray King The lefty specialist
PS: Tell me the fruit George was eating and the basic plot of that Seinfeld episode and win a dollar.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
It's German for Sucking from the South Side
So the Mets have signed Scott Schoeneweis.
...
Perfect piece of news to come back to after a law-school induced layoff. Analysis, including congratulations for Minaya's first signing of a caucasian player, to follow later today. Until then, try emailing Lefty to see if he's alive.
-RJ
...
Perfect piece of news to come back to after a law-school induced layoff. Analysis, including congratulations for Minaya's first signing of a caucasian player, to follow later today. Until then, try emailing Lefty to see if he's alive.
-RJ
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Bad Moves Over None?
Steve Goldman brings up an excellent point in today's Pinstriped Bible on YESnetwork.com, and believe me, I am not above scrounging for post ideas in other people's blogs. Intellectual property, my ass.
Anyway, Mr. Goldman (who despite writing for one of the supposed "Al-Yankzeera" media outlets, is suprisingly evenhanded and takes Steinbrenner & Co. to task often) criticizes the Pittsburgh Pirates not for making bad moves, as Lefty and I so often criticize clubs for doing, but for doing, quite simply, nothing at all this offseason. Apparently they are waiting on Adam LaRoche's asking price to come down so they can unload Mike "Ouch, my elbow" Gonzalez on Atlanta. LaRoche is not going to make them a contender (shit, Gehrig on first might not make them a contender) but it would be a step in the right direction. Atlanta, however, is playing footsy with any number of teams for LaRoche and are perfectly content to go to Spring Training with him at first base. Why, then, hasn't Dave Littlefield moved the fuck on with his young, cheap pitching and gotten some young, cheap hitting? He's a retard, that's why.
Let's look at their top three starters first (in alphabetical order):
Zack Duke
2006: 10-15, 215IP 255H 17HR 68BB 117K (4.47 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)
Duke's first year as a full season starter in the majors was an important step forward for him. A classic finesse lefty (take notice oh mighty getter-outer of lefthanders), Duke's innings pitched placed him 12th in the NL, and his 4.47 ERA led the starting staff. 17 HR in 215IP means Herr Duke's sinking action keeps that ball down and in the park. Tremendous potential as his control improves. Oh, and btw, his 2006 salary? $335,000. Pretty sweet.
Ian Snell
2006: 14-11, 186IP 198H 29HR 74BB 169K (4.74 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)
Numbers do not do him justice. I had the pleasure of seeing him pitch against the New York Mets this past season in early May. INSERT CLICHE ABOUT HIS PITCHES HERE. Seriously though, his stuff is electric/filthy/disgusting/unfair. At 25, he has plenty of time to settle in and learn pitch selection better, from what I read throughout the season, and this conforms to what I saw in the game against the Mets, Snell gets obsessed with strike three, tries to be too fine and ends up in a hitter's count. "Points" his slider a bit under duress and it flattens out. Explosive fastball with action that makes righthanded batters' thumbs hurt. Big time future barring injury (no whammies, no whammies, fantasy sleeper, no whammies). $330,000 buys alot of KFC snackers, but not many pitchers of his talent.
Paul Maholm
2006: 8-10, 176IP 202H 19HR 81BB 117K (4.76 ERA, 1.61 WHIP)
Another lefty, but with more velocity than Mssr. Duke, Maholm has seen his learning curve take off with his rude introduction to major league hitters. His ERA and peripherals are skewed by 2 bad months (April and June) and otherwise would have looked much more respectable had he not had three awful starts in those months. Strikeout numbers will improve with his control and pitch selection ala Snell. Guess what? He's another minimum wage youngster at age 24 with a $328,000 salary.
The point I am trying to make is that any GM worth a damn (not so many) would be actively salivating at the thought of these young, cheap and talented starters occupying the back end of their rotation. I am not arguing that Pittsburgh should be rid of all three starters, because that would be on the Derek Bell level of stupidity, but that outside of Freddy Sanchez, the offensive talent on this team is atrocious. With prospects like the oft-injured Brian Bullington and others that could give similar numbers to any of these three, it would be aggressive indeed for Littlefield to be offering one of his top three for a multitude of everyday-player talent. Putting asses in the seats may be overrated for purposes of running a franchise, but the leverage Littlefield has with these three in the market for pitching that there is today, he could remake his team twice over with the prospects and everyday players he could get for any one of these guys. Instead, he quibbles with John Schuerholz over Adam LaRoche. Sigh.
Me and lefty would have the Pirates at .500 next year and a contender in that division within 3 years. Waiting on your call, Pittsburgh fans.
-RJ
Anyway, Mr. Goldman (who despite writing for one of the supposed "Al-Yankzeera" media outlets, is suprisingly evenhanded and takes Steinbrenner & Co. to task often) criticizes the Pittsburgh Pirates not for making bad moves, as Lefty and I so often criticize clubs for doing, but for doing, quite simply, nothing at all this offseason. Apparently they are waiting on Adam LaRoche's asking price to come down so they can unload Mike "Ouch, my elbow" Gonzalez on Atlanta. LaRoche is not going to make them a contender (shit, Gehrig on first might not make them a contender) but it would be a step in the right direction. Atlanta, however, is playing footsy with any number of teams for LaRoche and are perfectly content to go to Spring Training with him at first base. Why, then, hasn't Dave Littlefield moved the fuck on with his young, cheap pitching and gotten some young, cheap hitting? He's a retard, that's why.
Let's look at their top three starters first (in alphabetical order):
Zack Duke
2006: 10-15, 215IP 255H 17HR 68BB 117K (4.47 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)
Duke's first year as a full season starter in the majors was an important step forward for him. A classic finesse lefty (take notice oh mighty getter-outer of lefthanders), Duke's innings pitched placed him 12th in the NL, and his 4.47 ERA led the starting staff. 17 HR in 215IP means Herr Duke's sinking action keeps that ball down and in the park. Tremendous potential as his control improves. Oh, and btw, his 2006 salary? $335,000. Pretty sweet.
Ian Snell
2006: 14-11, 186IP 198H 29HR 74BB 169K (4.74 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)
Numbers do not do him justice. I had the pleasure of seeing him pitch against the New York Mets this past season in early May. INSERT CLICHE ABOUT HIS PITCHES HERE. Seriously though, his stuff is electric/filthy/disgusting/unfair. At 25, he has plenty of time to settle in and learn pitch selection better, from what I read throughout the season, and this conforms to what I saw in the game against the Mets, Snell gets obsessed with strike three, tries to be too fine and ends up in a hitter's count. "Points" his slider a bit under duress and it flattens out. Explosive fastball with action that makes righthanded batters' thumbs hurt. Big time future barring injury (no whammies, no whammies, fantasy sleeper, no whammies). $330,000 buys alot of KFC snackers, but not many pitchers of his talent.
Paul Maholm
2006: 8-10, 176IP 202H 19HR 81BB 117K (4.76 ERA, 1.61 WHIP)
Another lefty, but with more velocity than Mssr. Duke, Maholm has seen his learning curve take off with his rude introduction to major league hitters. His ERA and peripherals are skewed by 2 bad months (April and June) and otherwise would have looked much more respectable had he not had three awful starts in those months. Strikeout numbers will improve with his control and pitch selection ala Snell. Guess what? He's another minimum wage youngster at age 24 with a $328,000 salary.
The point I am trying to make is that any GM worth a damn (not so many) would be actively salivating at the thought of these young, cheap and talented starters occupying the back end of their rotation. I am not arguing that Pittsburgh should be rid of all three starters, because that would be on the Derek Bell level of stupidity, but that outside of Freddy Sanchez, the offensive talent on this team is atrocious. With prospects like the oft-injured Brian Bullington and others that could give similar numbers to any of these three, it would be aggressive indeed for Littlefield to be offering one of his top three for a multitude of everyday-player talent. Putting asses in the seats may be overrated for purposes of running a franchise, but the leverage Littlefield has with these three in the market for pitching that there is today, he could remake his team twice over with the prospects and everyday players he could get for any one of these guys. Instead, he quibbles with John Schuerholz over Adam LaRoche. Sigh.
Me and lefty would have the Pirates at .500 next year and a contender in that division within 3 years. Waiting on your call, Pittsburgh fans.
-RJ
Tuesday, January 9, 2007
Back Through the Box
Perhaps I will start saving up longer posts for a once-a-week bonanza of statistics. For now, I've created this segment, titled "Back Through the Box" for some bullet-point style questions and statements that I would like Lefty (and all four readers we have) to answer and contemplate. On to the detritus:
1. As I sit here in legal research and writing class, even my misery at being back to school is buoyed by the fact that I won't have to look at Randy Johnson's face in HD anymore on a regular basis. Whether his spot is taken by Pavano's creaky asscheeks, Humberto Sanchez Rodriguez Martinez, or ::gasp:: Philip Hughes, they still couldn't be as frustrating as watching the Decrepit Unit give up 2 out RBI hits to the backup Devil Rays DH.
2. What kind of pitcher is Philip Hughes? By type, I mean strikeout, flyball, changeup artist, sinkerballer, control-dependent? I know nothing about his pitch selection, velocity, mechanics or makeup. I do know he has strong K numbers in AA, but what the hell does that mean when there are 2 outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the seventh and he's at 98 pitches?
3. Good thing the Red Sox have traded Manny, I mean, whew. Glad to see he is safely out of the division where he has murdered the Yankees almost as much as Papi. What's that? He demanded a trade and they didn't give it to him? Fuck.
4. How does Theo Epstein get away with that? Does he just give him a different colored warm-up jersey and tell him his first game is at Fenway or what?
5. Seriously. Fuck.
6. Jonathan Papelbon? Really, Theo? That's your ace in the hole? So a guy who couldn't keep his shoulder intact (literally, it was in two seperate pieces in September) over eighty innings is supposed to give the Sawx 200+ innings? Really? Meanwhile, Curt Schilling hasn't met a Boston Creme doughnut he couldn't swallow whole and I'm supposed to be scared of Josh Beckett's labia-like fingers? Every year it's "the balance of power in the AL East is shifting!" Every year Cashman keeps my boys right there. Go fuck yourself, greater Boston metropolitan area!
-RJ
1. As I sit here in legal research and writing class, even my misery at being back to school is buoyed by the fact that I won't have to look at Randy Johnson's face in HD anymore on a regular basis. Whether his spot is taken by Pavano's creaky asscheeks, Humberto Sanchez Rodriguez Martinez, or ::gasp:: Philip Hughes, they still couldn't be as frustrating as watching the Decrepit Unit give up 2 out RBI hits to the backup Devil Rays DH.
2. What kind of pitcher is Philip Hughes? By type, I mean strikeout, flyball, changeup artist, sinkerballer, control-dependent? I know nothing about his pitch selection, velocity, mechanics or makeup. I do know he has strong K numbers in AA, but what the hell does that mean when there are 2 outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the seventh and he's at 98 pitches?
3. Good thing the Red Sox have traded Manny, I mean, whew. Glad to see he is safely out of the division where he has murdered the Yankees almost as much as Papi. What's that? He demanded a trade and they didn't give it to him? Fuck.
4. How does Theo Epstein get away with that? Does he just give him a different colored warm-up jersey and tell him his first game is at Fenway or what?
5. Seriously. Fuck.
6. Jonathan Papelbon? Really, Theo? That's your ace in the hole? So a guy who couldn't keep his shoulder intact (literally, it was in two seperate pieces in September) over eighty innings is supposed to give the Sawx 200+ innings? Really? Meanwhile, Curt Schilling hasn't met a Boston Creme doughnut he couldn't swallow whole and I'm supposed to be scared of Josh Beckett's labia-like fingers? Every year it's "the balance of power in the AL East is shifting!" Every year Cashman keeps my boys right there. Go fuck yourself, greater Boston metropolitan area!
-RJ
Monday, January 8, 2007
I Hate You...
Regarding your little math equation there: Replace Philip Hughes with the Oft-Injured, newly revived, pride of Southington, Carl Pavano, and suddenly Im a little happier about the trade. Spring training will have an interesting twist to it to see which scenario plays out.
WHEN (notice I didn't use "IF", but instead chose "WHEN") the Yankees acquire Santana, I will in fact be done with the game of baseball. Ive threatened it many times before, but as things have played out with the "Arod Affair", Sheffield, Giambi, and their myriad of other failed acquistions (note: failed=no championships), Im still here with my head attached to my body. Although, you know, with this recent non-sensical, splurge by the Red Sox this offseason, I can't even scold the Yankees and baseball for their spending/possible spending. Life is a many fickle thing indeed.
-Rheal Cormier, The Lefty Specialist
WHEN (notice I didn't use "IF", but instead chose "WHEN") the Yankees acquire Santana, I will in fact be done with the game of baseball. Ive threatened it many times before, but as things have played out with the "Arod Affair", Sheffield, Giambi, and their myriad of other failed acquistions (note: failed=no championships), Im still here with my head attached to my body. Although, you know, with this recent non-sensical, splurge by the Red Sox this offseason, I can't even scold the Yankees and baseball for their spending/possible spending. Life is a many fickle thing indeed.
-Rheal Cormier, The Lefty Specialist
Saturday, January 6, 2007
Oh baby...
Bob Klapisch is reporting on ESPN.com that the Yankees are stockpiling young pitching talent for an earth-shattering, life altering trade with the Twins for Johan Santana... who know they can't afford him in 2 years since BZit is making 18 million a year. They want to sell him while his value is high, and the trade may include Carl Pavano and most, if not all, of the Triple-A pitching talent the Yankees have received thus far.
I will now proceed to walk around with an erection for the remainder of the offseason. And if Bob Klapisch knows what's good for him, he'll continue to drop hints about this until it happens, so that I can continue to torture Mr. Specialist about this.
-RJ
I will now proceed to walk around with an erection for the remainder of the offseason. And if Bob Klapisch knows what's good for him, he'll continue to drop hints about this until it happens, so that I can continue to torture Mr. Specialist about this.
-RJ
Friday, January 5, 2007
And, btw.
Yankee Pitching Staff - Randy Johnson =
Yankee Pitching Staff + Philip Hughes
Cashman for Exec of the Year. 43 year old pitcher for 3 young talents and a throw-in shortstop.
-RJ
Yankee Pitching Staff + Philip Hughes
Cashman for Exec of the Year. 43 year old pitcher for 3 young talents and a throw-in shortstop.
-RJ
A Short One
How do you like this one, oh wise one-out reliever:
(Flake = Zito)
(Zito + Fat Contract = Great Expectations)
(Great Expectations + Zito = Flake-out)
Flake-out + San Fransisco Giants = Billy Beane's Resignation (long overdue).
-RJ
P.S. CMiWang is a rare pitcher indeed that can have such terrible peripherals and yet be successful because he has one-of-a-kind stuff. Beckett, even with his vagina-soft fingers, is a fastball/curveball pitcher. Wang simply has the best sinker I've ever seen, and I've seen 'em all over the world.
(Flake = Zito)
(Zito + Fat Contract = Great Expectations)
(Great Expectations + Zito = Flake-out)
Flake-out + San Fransisco Giants = Billy Beane's Resignation (long overdue).
-RJ
P.S. CMiWang is a rare pitcher indeed that can have such terrible peripherals and yet be successful because he has one-of-a-kind stuff. Beckett, even with his vagina-soft fingers, is a fastball/curveball pitcher. Wang simply has the best sinker I've ever seen, and I've seen 'em all over the world.
CM WANG. No. Just no. I will not sit here and let you DEFILE this space with your Wang Chung talk here. I did not throw out Josh Beckett at you did I??? CM WANG had one good year for the best regular season team on the planet, all the while DEFYING all logic with his non-existent strikeout totals and ludicrous .277 BAA. Here's a list of names who ranked higher than Mr. Chung in said BAA category: The immortal Claudio Vargas, Mark Hendrickson, Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Francis, and oh just for kicks lets throw Vicente Padilla in there. Coincidentally, who was #1 in this category you might ask? -My boy Chris Young with an absurd .206 BAA.
I am however willing to compromise on "Everybody Wang Chung Tonight" though; if somehow his deal with Lucifer hasn't expired and he continues to post anomalistic numbers while keeping his wins high and ERA low, then Ok we might have something here and crow will be eaten. Until then, keep him on the pine with Blister Boy Beckett.
1 last thing: Remember the New Years Resolutions of keeping the posts shorter. I know you can do it.
-Mike Stanton, the Lefty Specialist
I am however willing to compromise on "Everybody Wang Chung Tonight" though; if somehow his deal with Lucifer hasn't expired and he continues to post anomalistic numbers while keeping his wins high and ERA low, then Ok we might have something here and crow will be eaten. Until then, keep him on the pine with Blister Boy Beckett.
1 last thing: Remember the New Years Resolutions of keeping the posts shorter. I know you can do it.
-Mike Stanton, the Lefty Specialist
Thursday, January 4, 2007
Overtly Overrating Overratedness
Confusing enough title? As promised, I return to tapdance over my colleague's arguments for the 11 pitchers he would take over Barry "The Flake" Zito. It should be said that I don't like Barry Zito, and I never have.... little too Cali for my tastes. I do remember fondly the 2001 ALCS Game 3 when Mikey Moose outdueled him for 7 for the Yanks 1-0 series-changing victory. Ahhh, those truly were the days.
In any event, I am going to pick apart each of the 11 pitchers to make them seem less likely to be chosen by any RATIONAL person over Monsieur Zito. Since Lefty IS a Red Sawx fan, this likely doesn't apply to him. (Badump bump) Anyway, here's Zito's line from last season:
221 IP 211H 27HR 99BB 151K; to the tune of a 3.83 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Not too shabby at all, although the walk total is making me gag on that sentence. So not GREAT, but certainly above average, particularly in the IP department. Let's look for a second at the walk total.
Zito's out pitch, the pitch that makes GMs cream and batters scream (alliteration FTW!) is an 11:53-5:47 curve ball that moves (and I've measured via a highly scientific method AKA comparing it to height of the batter) a good five plus feet. When all is well, it breaks from the shoulder level of the batter, where there is no way on God's green earth he could consider swinging at it all the way to the bottom of the kneecaps, nicking the strike zone and most likely resulting in a called strike or punchout. Think about this for a second. Zito (who has a below-average fastball and average changeup) is gonna use his magic pitch alot (I was looking for a curveball thrown percentage, but couldn't find it... paging Rob Neyer). He is standing the prescribed 60'6" away from a plate that is 17" wide and throwing what can only be described as a massive breaking ball. His walk total has always been high, along the lines of 80, 78, 88, 81, 89 in his five full seasons not including '06. His K/BB (covered in previous posts) has been in and around the low 2's until this season, however, where he posted a 1.53 K/BB. That, more than anything else, is troubling, as Jason Marquis is gonna find out (see Marquis post). Still, his numbers have been decently consistent prior to this season, so it could simply be a deviation.
Let's compare what we know about Zito to Lefty's top four pitchers.
Johan Santana:
'06: 19-6, 2.77 ERA 1.00 WHIP 233IP 186H 24HR 47BB 245K
Okay, let me preface everything that I'm about to say with this. Santana is the best pitcher on the planet right now, in the stronger of the two leagues. I am researching stats between the NL and AL as we speak, but let's just say for now that the World Series notwithstanding, the AL is vastly superior in offensive talent to the NL (DH, more superstars in prime, etc.). Santana put up these numbers pitching for a team that was offensively a joke, receiving 9 no-decisions, at least 6 of which he pitched well enough to win.
Aright, so there is no argument against picking Santana over Zito. If I had a NL team under my GMship, I could count on 20 wins for Santana barring injury. See above posts for possible contract offers (20 years, 300 million not out of question).
Roy Oswalt:
'06: 15-8, 2.98 ERA 1.17 WHIP 220.2IP 220H 18HR 38BB 166K
The argument against Oswalt is one of durability. In 2004 (admittedly two seasons ago) he was hampered by all kinds of leg and arm injuries. He has gone well over 200IP in 2005 and 2006, however, so my argument kind of falls flat. BUT he is only 5'10" (a fine height, one that I aspired to on my driver's license) and his violent delivery could lead to further arm troubles, but his age (turns just 30 this season), exceptional walk rate and past success would make him a fine choice over Barry Z.
Chris Carpenter:
'06: 15-8, 3.09 ERA 1.07 WHIP 221.2IP 194H 21HR 43BB 184K
Let me join Lefty in saying I do not think he is as good as the past two seasons would indicate, but holy hell, the numbers speak for themselves. He could've won twenty on any reasonably offensively competent team, but for the World Champions, he did yeoman's work. Age (32) and past injury history (i.e. arm aneurysm, shoulder reconstruction, etc.) makes him an iffy choice over the younger and more durable Zitolicious, but not nearly enough to disregard his reputation as a big-game pitcher that will throw regardless of nagging injuries.
Roy Halladay:
'06: 16-5, 3.19 ERA 1.10 WHIP 220IP 208H 19HR 34BB 132K
Doc had himself a fine season, even with his strained forearm and SIX winless starts at the end of the season. Doesn't strike out as many as Santana, but I concur with Mr. Specialist about his continuing ability to challenge JSant for the AL Cy Young. Add in the George Michael beard and Rough Justice is sold on his awesomeness. A true gamer, which is more than BZit, as lead flake in the flake sweepstakes, can claim.
When, you might start to ask yourself at this point, is Rough Justice gonna justify this obscenely (already) large post and FUCKING DISAGREE with Lefty? In short bullet points, I will do just that for the next seven.
Zambrano:
Big boy for a pitcher, pitches and acts like a middle linebacker. Uevos grandes, but his control is actually WORSE than Zito's, and he's been doing it in the NL. Granted, peripherals are delicious, but pitching under Dusty for the past two seasons has probably made him overdue for Tommy John and a career as the lesser Roy Halladay from this point on.
Peavy:
Funky 3/4 delivery and struggles in the playoffs tells me that he is not used to any kind of workload I would be prepared to drop on him. His injuries include blisters, mysterious shoulder fatigue and soreness, a sure sign of a pitcher who struggles mechanically and hence, velocity-wise. Not nearly consistent enough for me to pick him over Zito, and again, he posted an ERA over 4 in the NL in one of the weakest divisions in the history of the sport.
Webb:
Sinkerballer with good control. Kind of like Bret Saberhagen without the vagina. That being said, I am gonna need to see more from him before I anoint him ahead of Zito. Doesn't have Halladay's breaking ball, so no real out pitch besides his sinker. Does keep the ball in the park, but gives up hits aplenty. Age and injuries not really a factor yet.
D-Train:
Nope. Funky delivery only gets you so far. Needs to sharpen his breaking ball and get back the velocity he lost in the past season.
Chris Young:
Who?
CC Sabathia:
Big burly lefty, similar stuff to Dontrelle without the funky motion. Decent breaking stuff, but he, too has lost velocity and probably wears pants with a bigger waistline than mine... not a good sign.
Verlander:
THROW YOUR CURVEBALL FOR STRIKES AND BECOME NOLAN RYAN. Need to see him do it again.
What I am so upset about, and what caused me to begin this travesty of a post was that Lefty seems to have left out another young pitcher with fantastic potential that I would take over Barry Zito in a heartbeat. Than man is none other than Taiwanese legend and fellow pack-a-dayer Chien-Ming Wang, or as I call him in the privacy of my own home, CMiWang (pronounced SeeMyWang). Fun for the whole family. He has good control, throws a sinker in the MID NINETIES, and yet strikes out noone. Needs a better slider and he's approaching Halladay territory. Dan Quisenberry struck out more batters, but I bet he doesn't smoke filterless Taiwanese cigarettes. Domino, muthafucka.
In short, then, Barry Zito has been posting above-average ERAs in a superior league, and moving him to the NL and its weakest division can only help him. Look for him to hit it big this year.
-RJ
In any event, I am going to pick apart each of the 11 pitchers to make them seem less likely to be chosen by any RATIONAL person over Monsieur Zito. Since Lefty IS a Red Sawx fan, this likely doesn't apply to him. (Badump bump) Anyway, here's Zito's line from last season:
221 IP 211H 27HR 99BB 151K; to the tune of a 3.83 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Not too shabby at all, although the walk total is making me gag on that sentence. So not GREAT, but certainly above average, particularly in the IP department. Let's look for a second at the walk total.
Zito's out pitch, the pitch that makes GMs cream and batters scream (alliteration FTW!) is an 11:53-5:47 curve ball that moves (and I've measured via a highly scientific method AKA comparing it to height of the batter) a good five plus feet. When all is well, it breaks from the shoulder level of the batter, where there is no way on God's green earth he could consider swinging at it all the way to the bottom of the kneecaps, nicking the strike zone and most likely resulting in a called strike or punchout. Think about this for a second. Zito (who has a below-average fastball and average changeup) is gonna use his magic pitch alot (I was looking for a curveball thrown percentage, but couldn't find it... paging Rob Neyer). He is standing the prescribed 60'6" away from a plate that is 17" wide and throwing what can only be described as a massive breaking ball. His walk total has always been high, along the lines of 80, 78, 88, 81, 89 in his five full seasons not including '06. His K/BB (covered in previous posts) has been in and around the low 2's until this season, however, where he posted a 1.53 K/BB. That, more than anything else, is troubling, as Jason Marquis is gonna find out (see Marquis post). Still, his numbers have been decently consistent prior to this season, so it could simply be a deviation.
Let's compare what we know about Zito to Lefty's top four pitchers.
Johan Santana:
'06: 19-6, 2.77 ERA 1.00 WHIP 233IP 186H 24HR 47BB 245K
Okay, let me preface everything that I'm about to say with this. Santana is the best pitcher on the planet right now, in the stronger of the two leagues. I am researching stats between the NL and AL as we speak, but let's just say for now that the World Series notwithstanding, the AL is vastly superior in offensive talent to the NL (DH, more superstars in prime, etc.). Santana put up these numbers pitching for a team that was offensively a joke, receiving 9 no-decisions, at least 6 of which he pitched well enough to win.
Aright, so there is no argument against picking Santana over Zito. If I had a NL team under my GMship, I could count on 20 wins for Santana barring injury. See above posts for possible contract offers (20 years, 300 million not out of question).
Roy Oswalt:
'06: 15-8, 2.98 ERA 1.17 WHIP 220.2IP 220H 18HR 38BB 166K
The argument against Oswalt is one of durability. In 2004 (admittedly two seasons ago) he was hampered by all kinds of leg and arm injuries. He has gone well over 200IP in 2005 and 2006, however, so my argument kind of falls flat. BUT he is only 5'10" (a fine height, one that I aspired to on my driver's license) and his violent delivery could lead to further arm troubles, but his age (turns just 30 this season), exceptional walk rate and past success would make him a fine choice over Barry Z.
Chris Carpenter:
'06: 15-8, 3.09 ERA 1.07 WHIP 221.2IP 194H 21HR 43BB 184K
Let me join Lefty in saying I do not think he is as good as the past two seasons would indicate, but holy hell, the numbers speak for themselves. He could've won twenty on any reasonably offensively competent team, but for the World Champions, he did yeoman's work. Age (32) and past injury history (i.e. arm aneurysm, shoulder reconstruction, etc.) makes him an iffy choice over the younger and more durable Zitolicious, but not nearly enough to disregard his reputation as a big-game pitcher that will throw regardless of nagging injuries.
Roy Halladay:
'06: 16-5, 3.19 ERA 1.10 WHIP 220IP 208H 19HR 34BB 132K
Doc had himself a fine season, even with his strained forearm and SIX winless starts at the end of the season. Doesn't strike out as many as Santana, but I concur with Mr. Specialist about his continuing ability to challenge JSant for the AL Cy Young. Add in the George Michael beard and Rough Justice is sold on his awesomeness. A true gamer, which is more than BZit, as lead flake in the flake sweepstakes, can claim.
When, you might start to ask yourself at this point, is Rough Justice gonna justify this obscenely (already) large post and FUCKING DISAGREE with Lefty? In short bullet points, I will do just that for the next seven.
Zambrano:
Big boy for a pitcher, pitches and acts like a middle linebacker. Uevos grandes, but his control is actually WORSE than Zito's, and he's been doing it in the NL. Granted, peripherals are delicious, but pitching under Dusty for the past two seasons has probably made him overdue for Tommy John and a career as the lesser Roy Halladay from this point on.
Peavy:
Funky 3/4 delivery and struggles in the playoffs tells me that he is not used to any kind of workload I would be prepared to drop on him. His injuries include blisters, mysterious shoulder fatigue and soreness, a sure sign of a pitcher who struggles mechanically and hence, velocity-wise. Not nearly consistent enough for me to pick him over Zito, and again, he posted an ERA over 4 in the NL in one of the weakest divisions in the history of the sport.
Webb:
Sinkerballer with good control. Kind of like Bret Saberhagen without the vagina. That being said, I am gonna need to see more from him before I anoint him ahead of Zito. Doesn't have Halladay's breaking ball, so no real out pitch besides his sinker. Does keep the ball in the park, but gives up hits aplenty. Age and injuries not really a factor yet.
D-Train:
Nope. Funky delivery only gets you so far. Needs to sharpen his breaking ball and get back the velocity he lost in the past season.
Chris Young:
Who?
CC Sabathia:
Big burly lefty, similar stuff to Dontrelle without the funky motion. Decent breaking stuff, but he, too has lost velocity and probably wears pants with a bigger waistline than mine... not a good sign.
Verlander:
THROW YOUR CURVEBALL FOR STRIKES AND BECOME NOLAN RYAN. Need to see him do it again.
What I am so upset about, and what caused me to begin this travesty of a post was that Lefty seems to have left out another young pitcher with fantastic potential that I would take over Barry Zito in a heartbeat. Than man is none other than Taiwanese legend and fellow pack-a-dayer Chien-Ming Wang, or as I call him in the privacy of my own home, CMiWang (pronounced SeeMyWang). Fun for the whole family. He has good control, throws a sinker in the MID NINETIES, and yet strikes out noone. Needs a better slider and he's approaching Halladay territory. Dan Quisenberry struck out more batters, but I bet he doesn't smoke filterless Taiwanese cigarettes. Domino, muthafucka.
In short, then, Barry Zito has been posting above-average ERAs in a superior league, and moving him to the NL and its weakest division can only help him. Look for him to hit it big this year.
-RJ
ELEVEN GUYS OVER ZITO?! Well... shit.
Rest assured, my viewing public, I had a massive article written (WITH STATISTICS, YAAY!) before Blogger ate it and the fucker won't give it back. I promise I will rewrite it for this afternoon. Until then, suffice to say that I am going to kick the crap out of Lefty's argument pitcher by pitcher, even though I secretly agree with him, because Zito is overrated. However, is overratedness is, in and of itself, overrated. More to come, I promise.
- Rough Justice
- Rough Justice
Wednesday, January 3, 2007
Guys Id Prefer over Barry Zito (Not Gay I swear)
I had an interesting conversation with some friends this past weekend. With Barry Zito signing for a small island, a discussion brewed about what pitchers we would rather have over Barry Zito. It can be argued that Zito is remarkably consistent, durable and always gives you a chance to win. Sure, this may be the case, but look further and you will see a steady decline in his stats over the years. I for one am far too lazy to look them up, so Ill give you the short and sweet version: Strikeouts are down ERA is up . Call me old fashioned but to me those are pretty important. Anyway, to the point let me give you the guys I would take over Barry Zito.
The No-Brainers: When I was posed with the question of naming 3 guys Id rather have over Zito I thought oh jeez this is easy, but the days of good pitching is gone and it was surprising harder than I thought to make a good solid case for taking someone over Zito. These guys however are guys I would take without thinking twice.
1)Johan Santana-Duh
2)Roy Oswalt- Ridiculous numbers, and with any run support this guy would be an annual 25 game winner.
3) Chris Carpenter- Now Ive always been a Carp hater but damn he just keeps putting up the numbers.
4)Roy Halladay- This guy rounds out my list. The only guy who can even challenge Santana for the AL Cy Young crown.
Here's where some debate comes in. This next list are guys right around that grey area where it's tough to decide who the better choice is.
The High-End Potentials:
1) Carlos Zambrano- Scarily close to making into the no-brainer section and he hasnt had his career year yet.
2)Jake Peavy- Forget about the record, his stats are unbelievable the past coulpe of years.
3) Brandon Webb- Last year was not a fluke, take a look at his ERA since entering the league. With a decent team around him he wins 20 games easily.
This is where it really gets tough for me to pick.
The Lower-End Potentials:
1) Dontrelle Willis- From here forward you can make a case for Willis over Zito
2)Chris Young- Got out of Texas and in only his 2nd full season as a starter put up some very nice numbers in SD. Product of the park? Maybe.
3)CC Sabathia- I know the numbers are great but I have a hard time putting him above Zito. Others might be higher on him which is why I put him here.
4) Justin Verlander- Man he looked impressive last year didn't he? Show me again and he will only move up.
There's 11 guys I would take over Zito and there's plenty more who are debateable. The Matt Cain's, Dan Haren's, and John Lackey's of the world, for example, but, I simply don't think they are there yet.
-Larry Anderson, The Lefty Specialist.
The No-Brainers: When I was posed with the question of naming 3 guys Id rather have over Zito I thought oh jeez this is easy, but the days of good pitching is gone and it was surprising harder than I thought to make a good solid case for taking someone over Zito. These guys however are guys I would take without thinking twice.
1)Johan Santana-Duh
2)Roy Oswalt- Ridiculous numbers, and with any run support this guy would be an annual 25 game winner.
3) Chris Carpenter- Now Ive always been a Carp hater but damn he just keeps putting up the numbers.
4)Roy Halladay- This guy rounds out my list. The only guy who can even challenge Santana for the AL Cy Young crown.
Here's where some debate comes in. This next list are guys right around that grey area where it's tough to decide who the better choice is.
The High-End Potentials:
1) Carlos Zambrano- Scarily close to making into the no-brainer section and he hasnt had his career year yet.
2)Jake Peavy- Forget about the record, his stats are unbelievable the past coulpe of years.
3) Brandon Webb- Last year was not a fluke, take a look at his ERA since entering the league. With a decent team around him he wins 20 games easily.
This is where it really gets tough for me to pick.
The Lower-End Potentials:
1) Dontrelle Willis- From here forward you can make a case for Willis over Zito
2)Chris Young- Got out of Texas and in only his 2nd full season as a starter put up some very nice numbers in SD. Product of the park? Maybe.
3)CC Sabathia- I know the numbers are great but I have a hard time putting him above Zito. Others might be higher on him which is why I put him here.
4) Justin Verlander- Man he looked impressive last year didn't he? Show me again and he will only move up.
There's 11 guys I would take over Zito and there's plenty more who are debateable. The Matt Cain's, Dan Haren's, and John Lackey's of the world, for example, but, I simply don't think they are there yet.
-Larry Anderson, The Lefty Specialist.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Struck by Lightning in a Bottle
Rough Justice here to play a little devil's advocate with myself and Lefty Specialist's posts regarding Mssrs. Marquis and Lilly. Perhaps there is an answer as to why General Managers prefer to sign high-priced veterans over letting the kids play. Perhaps I will share that answer with you, in two part form, perhaps it will even be coherent, and perhaps you'll even read and enjoy it.
1. Experience: Now experience seems to be the buzzword (is buzzword in and of itself a buzzword? Can it apply to itself? Maybe that's a different post... anyway) when GMs sign grizzled veterans to large contracts. Guys like Craig Counsell, Mark Grudziialifjewofjkakislanik and Ted Lilly are known quantities. Known SHITTY quantities, but KNOWN nevertheless. These players have shown the remarkable quality, to paraphrase Teddy KGB, of having alligator blood. 3IP 8H 9ER 4BB 2K? Don't worry, you'll be out there again next week. 0-4 with three popups? Go get 'em tomorrow. So add that 3IP to your total, those 4 at bats to your tally, because some September, we'll need your veteran leadership as we coast to a third place finish, 10+ games out of first. Why the obsession with experience? Who the FUCK knows! Craig Counsell is a millionaire three times over because he talks to teammates in the clubhouse and is a generally nice guy, of course it doesn't hurt that he holds his bat like a drunk clinging to a telephone pole and managed to get hit by Mariano Rivera BY STANDING TOO GODDAMN CLOSE TO MARIANO'S FUCKING PLATE in that game that never happened back in 2001. Otherwise, he sucks. No range at any infield position (I have NO statistical backing on this, but if things like range factor continually show Jeter to be the worst fielding shortstop in the majors, I have to question just who the fuck is judging these things), has no power since that magical time noone cared if a hypodermic was hanging out of your asscheek, and is frequently injured thanks to his "gritty," "dirty-uniform," "scrappy," and "extremely caucasian" play. Whoops, this turned into a Craig Counsell lovefest here.
My point about experience basically is that the only way to GET it is by playing, irregardless of performance as these three examples show. Why not let a twenty-two year old somewhere in the minors hit Counsell's .255/.327/.347? It is absurd to think that merely by changing uniforms, Counsell or Lilly will magically begin to realize potential THEY'VE NEVER SHOWN. Which leads to my second and final point.
2. Lightning in a bottle: Remember 1996? Sure, it was in the heart of those years MLB would just as soon forget about, but forget that for a moment. A man known to his friends as Brady Anderson hit 50 homeruns that year. Previous career high? 21. Post 1996 high? 24. Leave out the obvious conclusion that the same diabolical conspiracy that poisoned Shawn Merriman (WARNING: NFL REFERENCE) worked its magic on Brady that year, and that is Jim Hendry's wet dream: sign a veteran with a middling track record (Lilly's 59-58, Marquis' 56-52) and hope for the big year. No doubt Hendry will be praying to whatever idle idol (oooh a homonym) Cubs fans pray to that flower boy and J-Marq can magically get to the next level. He'll never admit it, but these two are on the Sign-and-Pray plan in Chi-town.
As a post-script, why not give the aforementioned Sean Marshall a chance at compiling some experience, maybe he'll actually be ABOVE average... and if not, go ahead and let him compile some mediocre numbers so he can sign a massive deal in 6 or 7 years.
1. Experience: Now experience seems to be the buzzword (is buzzword in and of itself a buzzword? Can it apply to itself? Maybe that's a different post... anyway) when GMs sign grizzled veterans to large contracts. Guys like Craig Counsell, Mark Grudziialifjewofjkakislanik and Ted Lilly are known quantities. Known SHITTY quantities, but KNOWN nevertheless. These players have shown the remarkable quality, to paraphrase Teddy KGB, of having alligator blood. 3IP 8H 9ER 4BB 2K? Don't worry, you'll be out there again next week. 0-4 with three popups? Go get 'em tomorrow. So add that 3IP to your total, those 4 at bats to your tally, because some September, we'll need your veteran leadership as we coast to a third place finish, 10+ games out of first. Why the obsession with experience? Who the FUCK knows! Craig Counsell is a millionaire three times over because he talks to teammates in the clubhouse and is a generally nice guy, of course it doesn't hurt that he holds his bat like a drunk clinging to a telephone pole and managed to get hit by Mariano Rivera BY STANDING TOO GODDAMN CLOSE TO MARIANO'S FUCKING PLATE in that game that never happened back in 2001. Otherwise, he sucks. No range at any infield position (I have NO statistical backing on this, but if things like range factor continually show Jeter to be the worst fielding shortstop in the majors, I have to question just who the fuck is judging these things), has no power since that magical time noone cared if a hypodermic was hanging out of your asscheek, and is frequently injured thanks to his "gritty," "dirty-uniform," "scrappy," and "extremely caucasian" play. Whoops, this turned into a Craig Counsell lovefest here.
My point about experience basically is that the only way to GET it is by playing, irregardless of performance as these three examples show. Why not let a twenty-two year old somewhere in the minors hit Counsell's .255/.327/.347? It is absurd to think that merely by changing uniforms, Counsell or Lilly will magically begin to realize potential THEY'VE NEVER SHOWN. Which leads to my second and final point.
2. Lightning in a bottle: Remember 1996? Sure, it was in the heart of those years MLB would just as soon forget about, but forget that for a moment. A man known to his friends as Brady Anderson hit 50 homeruns that year. Previous career high? 21. Post 1996 high? 24. Leave out the obvious conclusion that the same diabolical conspiracy that poisoned Shawn Merriman (WARNING: NFL REFERENCE) worked its magic on Brady that year, and that is Jim Hendry's wet dream: sign a veteran with a middling track record (Lilly's 59-58, Marquis' 56-52) and hope for the big year. No doubt Hendry will be praying to whatever idle idol (oooh a homonym) Cubs fans pray to that flower boy and J-Marq can magically get to the next level. He'll never admit it, but these two are on the Sign-and-Pray plan in Chi-town.
As a post-script, why not give the aforementioned Sean Marshall a chance at compiling some experience, maybe he'll actually be ABOVE average... and if not, go ahead and let him compile some mediocre numbers so he can sign a massive deal in 6 or 7 years.
Strapped for Cash? Throw a Baseball!
Seemingly this is what is has come down to this winter as the hot stove keeps burning: If you can pitch, GM's will throw money at you.
My partner in crime here touched on some things in his previous post that Id like to get into, comment on, debate, whatever. Jason Marquis. Bad man. Very Bad. (In the words of Baboo Bot) RJ (Rough Justice for those just catching on) gave you the numbers so I wont give you those again but suffice it to say...not good. Let's stick with the Cubs for a minute here. Last year was an absolute abomination for them. Good news was they could let their young kids pitch so they can be ready for next year right? Oh wait they just spent money on the wildly overrated Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. Some might argue that Lilly will be this year's Jeff Weaver in the national league. I for one can't believe I just wrote that sentence. Anyone who follows the AL east will tell you the only reason Ted Lilly even has AVERAGE stats is because he absolutely destroys the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, and D-rays every year. Look at is this way, your team is now paying Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis a combined 17 million per year, when you could have had Barry Zito and Sean Marshall (who will give you similar if not better production) filling the same two rotation holes for equal if not less money. The result of this also creates a better situation should you make the playoffs. Tell me, would a playoff rotation of Zambrano, Zito, Prior (God willing), and either Kerry Wood/Rich Hill/Sean Marshall look more intimidating than say Zambrano, Lilly, Prior (God willing), Marquis? Im taking the quality over quantity every time.
Now ok, it remains to be seen how it will turn out for the Cubs, but lets look away from them right now and hey if they fuck it up, they can just go spend more money like the Red Sox are doing (another topic for another time, Im not ready yet). Other clubs don't have this luxury. Lets look at the Royals for instance. The royals have been an abyss since the George Brett days. The worst part is that management seems to have no effing clue what the hell they want to do. They go out and sign guys like Reggie Sanders, Gil Meche, Mark Grudzielanek, etc. etc. all the while touting their young guns. Well which is it? Youth or Experience? To me, if you are a struggling team with seemingly no chance to compete, why not blow it all up and let your youngsters develop at the Major League level? If I were a Royals fan, Id be in multiple dumpsters right now from letting an axe murderer kill me over the lack of direction this team has. Not everyone will pull a Marlins and be in contention with an average age of 17, but, more likely, young teams will be in the realm of the Pirates. At the very least id rather KNOW what my team is trying to do than toil in the realm of sub-mediocrity. Teams that build from youth at least have a light at the end of the tunnel.
One other thing to note, I do, in fact,still have wet dreams about a healthy Mark Prior.
-Tony Fossas, the Lefty Specialist.
My partner in crime here touched on some things in his previous post that Id like to get into, comment on, debate, whatever. Jason Marquis. Bad man. Very Bad. (In the words of Baboo Bot) RJ (Rough Justice for those just catching on) gave you the numbers so I wont give you those again but suffice it to say...not good. Let's stick with the Cubs for a minute here. Last year was an absolute abomination for them. Good news was they could let their young kids pitch so they can be ready for next year right? Oh wait they just spent money on the wildly overrated Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. Some might argue that Lilly will be this year's Jeff Weaver in the national league. I for one can't believe I just wrote that sentence. Anyone who follows the AL east will tell you the only reason Ted Lilly even has AVERAGE stats is because he absolutely destroys the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, and D-rays every year. Look at is this way, your team is now paying Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis a combined 17 million per year, when you could have had Barry Zito and Sean Marshall (who will give you similar if not better production) filling the same two rotation holes for equal if not less money. The result of this also creates a better situation should you make the playoffs. Tell me, would a playoff rotation of Zambrano, Zito, Prior (God willing), and either Kerry Wood/Rich Hill/Sean Marshall look more intimidating than say Zambrano, Lilly, Prior (God willing), Marquis? Im taking the quality over quantity every time.
Now ok, it remains to be seen how it will turn out for the Cubs, but lets look away from them right now and hey if they fuck it up, they can just go spend more money like the Red Sox are doing (another topic for another time, Im not ready yet). Other clubs don't have this luxury. Lets look at the Royals for instance. The royals have been an abyss since the George Brett days. The worst part is that management seems to have no effing clue what the hell they want to do. They go out and sign guys like Reggie Sanders, Gil Meche, Mark Grudzielanek, etc. etc. all the while touting their young guns. Well which is it? Youth or Experience? To me, if you are a struggling team with seemingly no chance to compete, why not blow it all up and let your youngsters develop at the Major League level? If I were a Royals fan, Id be in multiple dumpsters right now from letting an axe murderer kill me over the lack of direction this team has. Not everyone will pull a Marlins and be in contention with an average age of 17, but, more likely, young teams will be in the realm of the Pirates. At the very least id rather KNOW what my team is trying to do than toil in the realm of sub-mediocrity. Teams that build from youth at least have a light at the end of the tunnel.
One other thing to note, I do, in fact,still have wet dreams about a healthy Mark Prior.
-Tony Fossas, the Lefty Specialist.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Not Exactly a Marquis Signing... HAHAHAHA!!!
Aaaand the title might be a little too clever. I'm here (as your resident RATIONAL Yankee fan) to discuss the Jason Marquis signing by the Cubs. Now, OO7 here (Lefty Specialist to you blog whores) has a small side business as a tragic Cubs fan. The poor son of a bitch, before they cancelled the 2004 World Series (electroshock therapy still hasn't freed me to admit what actually occurred, but I'm seeing a Buddhist about it), was rooting for two teams who had gone a combined 182 years without a championship. He will still occasionally wake up at 4am, having moistened his panties at the thought of Mark Prior pitching healthy (which will never happen).
This leads me to what I wanted to address here. It is one thing to see your team thoroughly suck its way to a 66-96 record and know that something needs to be done, but it is quite another to go batshit crazy with your boss's cash. I applaud GM Jim Hendry for opening up the traditionally hymen-tight purse strings of the Tribune Corp. to sign some prime (for this awful offseason anyway) free agents like Alfonso "Inning-killing Strikeout" Soriano and Ted "Maddeningly Inconsistent" Lilly for Lou Pineilla to scream at next year, but let's get serious for a second.
As an aside, I will be doing that "quotes between a player's name" thing alot, notice how funny that was? See, I take the players name, then I insert a clever snippet of their talent or distinguishing feature right there in the middle. Here, watch this: Randy "Tiny Penis" Johnson, Curt "I'll Have Another Milkshake" Schilling or even Josh "Ouch, Ouch, My Finger" Beckett.
Back to Marquis. So Jim Hendry has a near-death experience striking a deal with Yankee castoff Ted Lilly, but then doesn't heed the word of his creator and tempts death AGAIN by signing Jason Marquis. Now, it goes without saying that Marquis' 6.02 ERA was the highest among all pitchers who qualified for the ERA title (which means that they pitched at least one inning for every game that their team played i.e. 162 IP over 162 game season). But among ALL PITCHERS who pitched in the major leagues this season, Marquis' ERA ranked him 481st of 635.
"But Rough Justice," you'll cry, "maybe he was extraordinarily unlucky! What about his peripherals?" Well, you are a moron, because you've fallen into my obvious and ill-conceived trap, so let's examine those peripherals:
He struck out 4.45 batters/9IP, good for 72nd among the 80 qualifying pitchers, 522nd out of the aforementioned 635. Still more telling of his true atrociousness is his K/BB ratio (that's strikeouts per walks for you Angels and Diamondbacks fans) of 1.28. That means for every batter he walked, he struck out 1.28 (ranked 459 out of 635). Compare that to Greg Maddux, who, despite being old and decrepit, managed to post a K/BB ratio of 3.16. Unfair comparison, you might say? Fuck you, I might say. But how about Jeff "Eye of the Tiger" Weaver, another vomit-inducing ex-Yankee, who came in with a ratio of 2.28? Or Rodrigo "Yo Soy Un Poquito" Lopez at 2.31? Any league average pitcher should be striking out two men for every one walked (2.00). An inability to strike out batters combined with a propensity to walk batters means that a pitcher is a walking, talking big inning for the opposition, because a one-out walk doesn't mean, in the words of Jim Mora, Sr., DIDDLY POO, if you strike out the next two batters in the inning. Marquis not only was giving up one out walks, but batters (who hit .289 off of him, which isn't the WORST batting average against, but it's close) magically turned into Johnny Damon to the tune of a .364 OBP and a .509 Slugging, kept walking and getting hits long after an excusable walk was handed out by J-Marq.
So, 21 million dollars later, the Cubs plan on running Marquis out there every fifth day. A guy who gave up 35 home runs pitching half his games in a pitcher's park, who will now be pitching in the friendly, and really really small, confines of Wrigley field. Projections? We are not in the business of projecting. I am, however, in the business of making bold proclamations that end up being way off base (although that is REALLY REALLY unlikely here). In that spirit, he'll be in the bullpen by June.
This underscores a much larger problem in the major leagues, and what will be a constant theme throughout my criticisms of GM moves. GMs spend way too much money on shitty pitching. Jim Hendry, for one, just spent $21 million dollars on a shitty pitcher. What I don't understand is that there are any number of minor league workhorses, career shitkickers, and starry-eyed hopefuls that could give you the same or better numbers than Jason MOTHERFUCKING Marquis. Using them has three benefits:
ONE: Lets a GM see what he has in his farm system, no reason to keep a 40-man roster spot open for a guy who pitches worse than Jason Marquis.
TWO: YOU DON'T PAY JASON FUCKING MARQUIS TWENTY-ONE MILLION DOLLARS!
THREE: YOU DON'T PAY JASON FUC... gaaaaah. Sorry, aneurysm.
Me and Double-Oh were having a discussion the other day about what Johan Santana would make in this completely insane market for pitching. 12 years $300 million? 20 years $400 million? He'd be the first 30 game winner since McClain on the Yankees or ::gasp:: Red Sox. Anyway, I'd better wrap up this ridiculously long post, Jeff "Evolution is a Myth" Suppan will be signing his Kevin Brown contract any minute.... GAH!
This leads me to what I wanted to address here. It is one thing to see your team thoroughly suck its way to a 66-96 record and know that something needs to be done, but it is quite another to go batshit crazy with your boss's cash. I applaud GM Jim Hendry for opening up the traditionally hymen-tight purse strings of the Tribune Corp. to sign some prime (for this awful offseason anyway) free agents like Alfonso "Inning-killing Strikeout" Soriano and Ted "Maddeningly Inconsistent" Lilly for Lou Pineilla to scream at next year, but let's get serious for a second.
As an aside, I will be doing that "quotes between a player's name" thing alot, notice how funny that was? See, I take the players name, then I insert a clever snippet of their talent or distinguishing feature right there in the middle. Here, watch this: Randy "Tiny Penis" Johnson, Curt "I'll Have Another Milkshake" Schilling or even Josh "Ouch, Ouch, My Finger" Beckett.
Back to Marquis. So Jim Hendry has a near-death experience striking a deal with Yankee castoff Ted Lilly, but then doesn't heed the word of his creator and tempts death AGAIN by signing Jason Marquis. Now, it goes without saying that Marquis' 6.02 ERA was the highest among all pitchers who qualified for the ERA title (which means that they pitched at least one inning for every game that their team played i.e. 162 IP over 162 game season). But among ALL PITCHERS who pitched in the major leagues this season, Marquis' ERA ranked him 481st of 635.
"But Rough Justice," you'll cry, "maybe he was extraordinarily unlucky! What about his peripherals?" Well, you are a moron, because you've fallen into my obvious and ill-conceived trap, so let's examine those peripherals:
He struck out 4.45 batters/9IP, good for 72nd among the 80 qualifying pitchers, 522nd out of the aforementioned 635. Still more telling of his true atrociousness is his K/BB ratio (that's strikeouts per walks for you Angels and Diamondbacks fans) of 1.28. That means for every batter he walked, he struck out 1.28 (ranked 459 out of 635). Compare that to Greg Maddux, who, despite being old and decrepit, managed to post a K/BB ratio of 3.16. Unfair comparison, you might say? Fuck you, I might say. But how about Jeff "Eye of the Tiger" Weaver, another vomit-inducing ex-Yankee, who came in with a ratio of 2.28? Or Rodrigo "Yo Soy Un Poquito" Lopez at 2.31? Any league average pitcher should be striking out two men for every one walked (2.00). An inability to strike out batters combined with a propensity to walk batters means that a pitcher is a walking, talking big inning for the opposition, because a one-out walk doesn't mean, in the words of Jim Mora, Sr., DIDDLY POO, if you strike out the next two batters in the inning. Marquis not only was giving up one out walks, but batters (who hit .289 off of him, which isn't the WORST batting average against, but it's close) magically turned into Johnny Damon to the tune of a .364 OBP and a .509 Slugging, kept walking and getting hits long after an excusable walk was handed out by J-Marq.
So, 21 million dollars later, the Cubs plan on running Marquis out there every fifth day. A guy who gave up 35 home runs pitching half his games in a pitcher's park, who will now be pitching in the friendly, and really really small, confines of Wrigley field. Projections? We are not in the business of projecting. I am, however, in the business of making bold proclamations that end up being way off base (although that is REALLY REALLY unlikely here). In that spirit, he'll be in the bullpen by June.
This underscores a much larger problem in the major leagues, and what will be a constant theme throughout my criticisms of GM moves. GMs spend way too much money on shitty pitching. Jim Hendry, for one, just spent $21 million dollars on a shitty pitcher. What I don't understand is that there are any number of minor league workhorses, career shitkickers, and starry-eyed hopefuls that could give you the same or better numbers than Jason MOTHERFUCKING Marquis. Using them has three benefits:
ONE: Lets a GM see what he has in his farm system, no reason to keep a 40-man roster spot open for a guy who pitches worse than Jason Marquis.
TWO: YOU DON'T PAY JASON FUCKING MARQUIS TWENTY-ONE MILLION DOLLARS!
THREE: YOU DON'T PAY JASON FUC... gaaaaah. Sorry, aneurysm.
Me and Double-Oh were having a discussion the other day about what Johan Santana would make in this completely insane market for pitching. 12 years $300 million? 20 years $400 million? He'd be the first 30 game winner since McClain on the Yankees or ::gasp:: Red Sox. Anyway, I'd better wrap up this ridiculously long post, Jeff "Evolution is a Myth" Suppan will be signing his Kevin Brown contract any minute.... GAH!
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