Overtly Overrating Overratedness

Confusing enough title? As promised, I return to tapdance over my colleague's arguments for the 11 pitchers he would take over Barry "The Flake" Zito. It should be said that I don't like Barry Zito, and I never have.... little too Cali for my tastes. I do remember fondly the 2001 ALCS Game 3 when Mikey Moose outdueled him for 7 for the Yanks 1-0 series-changing victory. Ahhh, those truly were the days.
In any event, I am going to pick apart each of the 11 pitchers to make them seem less likely to be chosen by any RATIONAL person over Monsieur Zito. Since Lefty IS a Red Sawx fan, this likely doesn't apply to him. (Badump bump) Anyway, here's Zito's line from last season:
221 IP 211H 27HR 99BB 151K; to the tune of a 3.83 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Not too shabby at all, although the walk total is making me gag on that sentence. So not GREAT, but certainly above average, particularly in the IP department. Let's look for a second at the walk total.
Zito's out pitch, the pitch that makes GMs cream and batters scream (alliteration FTW!) is an 11:53-5:47 curve ball that moves (and I've measured via a highly scientific method AKA comparing it to height of the batter) a good five plus feet. When all is well, it breaks from the shoulder level of the batter, where there is no way on God's green earth he could consider swinging at it all the way to the bottom of the kneecaps, nicking the strike zone and most likely resulting in a called strike or punchout. Think about this for a second. Zito (who has a below-average fastball and average changeup) is gonna use his magic pitch alot (I was looking for a curveball thrown percentage, but couldn't find it... paging Rob Neyer). He is standing the prescribed 60'6" away from a plate that is 17" wide and throwing what can only be described as a massive breaking ball. His walk total has always been high, along the lines of 80, 78, 88, 81, 89 in his five full seasons not including '06. His K/BB (covered in previous posts) has been in and around the low 2's until this season, however, where he posted a 1.53 K/BB. That, more than anything else, is troubling, as Jason Marquis is gonna find out (see Marquis post). Still, his numbers have been decently consistent prior to this season, so it could simply be a deviation.
Let's compare what we know about Zito to Lefty's top four pitchers.
Johan Santana:
'06: 19-6, 2.77 ERA 1.00 WHIP 233IP 186H 24HR 47BB 245K
Okay, let me preface everything that I'm about to say with this. Santana is the best pitcher on the planet right now, in the stronger of the two leagues. I am researching stats between the NL and AL as we speak, but let's just say for now that the World Series notwithstanding, the AL is vastly superior in offensive talent to the NL (DH, more superstars in prime, etc.). Santana put up these numbers pitching for a team that was offensively a joke, receiving 9 no-decisions, at least 6 of which he pitched well enough to win.
Aright, so there is no argument against picking Santana over Zito. If I had a NL team under my GMship, I could count on 20 wins for Santana barring injury. See above posts for possible contract offers (20 years, 300 million not out of question).
Roy Oswalt:
'06: 15-8, 2.98 ERA 1.17 WHIP 220.2IP 220H 18HR 38BB 166K
The argument against Oswalt is one of durability. In 2004 (admittedly two seasons ago) he was hampered by all kinds of leg and arm injuries. He has gone well over 200IP in 2005 and 2006, however, so my argument kind of falls flat. BUT he is only 5'10" (a fine height, one that I aspired to on my driver's license) and his violent delivery could lead to further arm troubles, but his age (turns just 30 this season), exceptional walk rate and past success would make him a fine choice over Barry Z.
Chris Carpenter:
'06: 15-8, 3.09 ERA 1.07 WHIP 221.2IP 194H 21HR 43BB 184K
Let me join Lefty in saying I do not think he is as good as the past two seasons would indicate, but holy hell, the numbers speak for themselves. He could've won twenty on any reasonably offensively competent team, but for the World Champions, he did yeoman's work. Age (32) and past injury history (i.e. arm aneurysm, shoulder reconstruction, etc.) makes him an iffy choice over the younger and more durable Zitolicious, but not nearly enough to disregard his reputation as a big-game pitcher that will throw regardless of nagging injuries.
Roy Halladay:
'06: 16-5, 3.19 ERA 1.10 WHIP 220IP 208H 19HR 34BB 132K
Doc had himself a fine season, even with his strained forearm and SIX winless starts at the end of the season. Doesn't strike out as many as Santana, but I concur with Mr. Specialist about his continuing ability to challenge JSant for the AL Cy Young. Add in the George Michael beard and Rough Justice is sold on his awesomeness. A true gamer, which is more than BZit, as lead flake in the flake sweepstakes, can claim.
When, you might start to ask yourself at this point, is Rough Justice gonna justify this obscenely (already) large post and FUCKING DISAGREE with Lefty? In short bullet points, I will do just that for the next seven.
Zambrano:
Big boy for a pitcher, pitches and acts like a middle linebacker. Uevos grandes, but his control is actually WORSE than Zito's, and he's been doing it in the NL. Granted, peripherals are delicious, but pitching under Dusty for the past two seasons has probably made him overdue for Tommy John and a career as the lesser Roy Halladay from this point on.
Peavy:
Funky 3/4 delivery and struggles in the playoffs tells me that he is not used to any kind of workload I would be prepared to drop on him. His injuries include blisters, mysterious shoulder fatigue and soreness, a sure sign of a pitcher who struggles mechanically and hence, velocity-wise. Not nearly consistent enough for me to pick him over Zito, and again, he posted an ERA over 4 in the NL in one of the weakest divisions in the history of the sport.
Webb:
Sinkerballer with good control. Kind of like Bret Saberhagen without the vagina. That being said, I am gonna need to see more from him before I anoint him ahead of Zito. Doesn't have Halladay's breaking ball, so no real out pitch besides his sinker. Does keep the ball in the park, but gives up hits aplenty. Age and injuries not really a factor yet.
D-Train:
Nope. Funky delivery only gets you so far. Needs to sharpen his breaking ball and get back the velocity he lost in the past season.
Chris Young:
Who?
CC Sabathia:
Big burly lefty, similar stuff to Dontrelle without the funky motion. Decent breaking stuff, but he, too has lost velocity and probably wears pants with a bigger waistline than mine... not a good sign.
Verlander:
THROW YOUR CURVEBALL FOR STRIKES AND BECOME NOLAN RYAN. Need to see him do it again.
What I am so upset about, and what caused me to begin this travesty of a post was that Lefty seems to have left out another young pitcher with fantastic potential that I would take over Barry Zito in a heartbeat. Than man is none other than Taiwanese legend and fellow pack-a-dayer Chien-Ming Wang, or as I call him in the privacy of my own home, CMiWang (pronounced SeeMyWang). Fun for the whole family. He has good control, throws a sinker in the MID NINETIES, and yet strikes out noone. Needs a better slider and he's approaching Halladay territory. Dan Quisenberry struck out more batters, but I bet he doesn't smoke filterless Taiwanese cigarettes. Domino, muthafucka.
In short, then, Barry Zito has been posting above-average ERAs in a superior league, and moving him to the NL and its weakest division can only help him. Look for him to hit it big this year.

-RJ